On reading Gwynne Dyer's "Future
Tense"
I am reading Gwynne Dyer's "Future Tense: the Coming
World Order" in which he argues right from the
beginning that the best thing for the new world is for
the Americans to lose fast so the west can get out of
the Middle East and the hot conflict can start simmering
down.
Lose and get outHe also argues that in all the unsuccessful insurgencies
the population turned on the insurgents because the
insurgents had no one to kill except the native population.
In the successful insurgencies the rebels could focus
the conflict on the occupying power or foreign colonists.
He uses as one of the examples the two insurgencies
in Algeria. The Marxist insurgency against the French
in the 70s was successful because the French occupying
military and their colonists presented a foreign target
for the Algerian rebels so every action taken by each
side had as a consequence increased focus on the foreign
presence. In contrast to this, the GIA insurgency
in the 90s to present has almost entirely petered
out because the vicious extremist groups had no foreign
presence to focus on, their daily acts of savagery
against the population couldn't gain them any support.
Indeed, it is charged that the government further
marginalized the movement by committing further acts
against villagers and pinning those acts on the GIA.
Dyer argues that the situation in Iraq is far worse
for the U.S. than it was for the French in Algeria
in the 70s. The French then had ruled Algeria for
almost a century and had one million settlers in its
'African province', some for many generations, among
some seven million Muslims. The Fourth Republic at
the height of the insurgency had 500,000 troops and
had the advantage of being just across the Mediterranean.
By contrast, the Americans' only presence in Iraq
is in the form of the military occupational forces.
The numbers are no where near the French presence
at the time. The Americans had no presence whatsoever
in Iraq prior to invasion and no history. Similar
to the French situation, the Americans have presented
a foreign target to insurgent attacks and a focus
for insurgent propaganda and like the French have
engaged the resentment of the population by heavy
handedness.
In Dyer's estimation then the U.S. will eventually
lose in Iraq (even though they may withdraw and claim
victory), it is only a question of when and how much
misery will ensue before that happens. More on Gwynnedyer.net.
An excerpt from the book is here
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